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Thursday, January 15, 2015

Gesi: Tumilikishane Vitalu au Tugawane Faida?

Salim Khatri:

Kumiliki hisa za kampuni zina faida gani za ziada (advantage) juu ya kupatiwa mapato ya “gesi ya faida” (siyo faida ya kampuni)?

Zitto Kabwe:

[S]uala sio umiliki v mgawo wa mapato. Hayo ni mambo ambayo yote yapo. [Production Sharing Agreement] PSA ni mkataba wa kugawana mapato, mkataba huu ni kwa kampuni yeyote. Iwe ya nje au ya ndani. Iwe ya umma au binafsi. 

Umiliki kuwemo kwenye maamuzi ya kampuni na kupata mgawo zaidi kupitia [D]ividend (Gawio). Kwa hiyo ukiwa na kampuni ya wananchi yenye hisa kampuni hiyo itapata Gawio na [TPDC] itaendelea kukusanya mgawo wa mafuta ya ziada (profit oil). 
Haina maana kwamba tunachagua kati ya kugawana faida na kugawana mapato. La hasha. Bali kampuni ya umiliki iwe na ushiriki wa wananchi kupitia soko la mitaji na umiliki wa serikali. 

[…]

Umiliki wa wananchi pia una maana haki ya wananchi kuamua kama rasilimali itafutwe na kuchimbwa 'right to free prior informed consent'. Iwapo hili likifanyika mrahaba utabaki kwa wananchi na sio warasimu katika Serikali [K]uu. 

Vile vile umiliki kupitia soko la hisa kwa wenye uwezo wa kununua (makundi yaweza kununua kupitia vipande pia). Nyingine kushikwa na Serikali kupitia kampuni hiyo tanzu [ya kumiliki hisa kwenye makampuni ya mafuta na gesi]. 

Salim Khatri:

Serikali yetu kwa nia njema imeamua ku-focus kwenye mgao wa mapato na siyo umiliki wa makampuni. Umiliki na ushirika kwenye makampuni umeonyesha matatizo kadhaa wa kadhaa kwa upande wa serikali. Tumeshindwa kuendesha shirika la Reli (pamoja na TAZARA) kila siku zinaombwa bail out money. Tumeshndwa Williamson. Tunashindwa TANESCO (rejea takwimu za hasara ulizokuwa unazitoa kumkandamiza Prof. Muhongo). Shirika la Ndege na mifano mingine mingi tu. Kwa nini tuendelee kurudiarudia kitu hicho hicho kila mara tukitegemea matokeo tofauti?

Serikali imeamua kuwa inataka kusimamia kugawana faida badala ya kujiingiza kwenye umiliki wa hizi kampuni. Umiliki maana yake ni kuingiza pesa (za walipa kodi) kununua hisa na kuchangia hasara pale hasara inapotokea kwani si mara zote kampuni zinazalisha faida tu, Williamsons Diamond is living example.

Sekta binafsi inataka kufanya hivyo wafanye hivyo, hakuna aliyewazuia. Hivyo ndivyo anavyosema Prof. Muhongo. Wanataka kujiingiza kwenye risky business adventures, wafanye hivyo kwa pesa zao bila kutaka pesa za mkulima wa Korosho ziwasaidie kufikia malengo yao ya kujilimbikizia utajiri zaidi.

George Fumbuka:

Hapa nadhani mnaongelea hilo hilo. Mathematically, it is a straight toss off between what you get in one regime compared to what you get in the other. Lakini ya kuzingatiwa ni:

1. Dividend hutokana na faida; huwezi kulipa dividend kama huna faida. "Faida" ni concept ya kihasibu, inafuata IFRS. Pia dividend hulipwa tu kama Bodi inakubali "kupendekeza". In most cases, the majority shareholder ndiyo hupitisha mahesabu (kuamua kama kuna "faida"), na ni yeye anayependekeza gawio. If it is not in the majority shareholder's interest kulipa gawio, hakutakuwa na gawio; mahesabu yatapikwa hadi ionekane kuna hasara. Mfano halisi TTCL mwaka ule.
    
2. PSA mara nyingi ina international benchmarks, tweaked here and there for specifics like poor infrastructure; pricing power; the tax regime, na negotiating prowess. Uzuri wa hii haifuati IFRS wala Board decisions, inakubalika upfront. Lakini hata hapa pia the majority shareholder will have more information than we have, kwa vile ni mtaalamu na yuko jikoni anajua kinachopikwa. Pia wana tabia ya kudogosha mambo yetu - downplay the potentialities; wanalalamika Watanzania ni "wavivu"; baadhi ya assets zetu wanazikataa (mnakumbuka nyumba za TBL na buses na kindergartens na bendi ya muziki? Wanatoa thamani ndogo immediately wakishasaini zinauzwa kwa bei kubwa); kuweka huge contingencies ili zije ziamriwe na Bodi (yao) wakishaingia; na kuomba Board control (hata kama hawana majority shares), n.k.

3. Kuna mbinu nyingi tu, mara nyinmgi majority shareholders wanatumia the best advisors to protect themselves. Mathalani, wanaweza wakaweka management fees au trademarks au patents royalties ili walipwe upfront, kwa hiyo hawana incentive ya kupata gawio walishachukua chao mapema; wanaweza wakatumia big bath accounting, wakalipa madeni na gharama zao zote kwenye kakosa kadogo, mradi waishie loss making position, wanaweza wakatengeneza "consolidated accounts", wakachanganya mahesabu ya makampuni yao yote worldwide - unakuta faida za Tanzania zinamezwa na R&D costs za Chile na Papua New Guinea; na kedha wa kadha.

4. Njia pekeee ya sisi kujihami na kutumia mwizi kupambana na mwizi. They have economists? We give them economists. They have financial analysts? We give them our own analysts. Geologists? Ok, geologists, na sisi tunawapa wetu. Shida yetu sisi tumewaachia wanasiasa kama PAC kutawala mambo, tunafuata "ideas" zao (kama nakumbuka vizuri PAC hawakuwa na mtaalamu hata mmoja wa escrow na IFRS!!).

[...]

Dr. Antipas Massawe:

Hisa kwenye hatimiliki za vitalu husika kwenye utafutaji wa mafuta na gesi ndizo hizo hizo zinazotumika na makampuni ya kigeni kujipatia sehemu kubwa ya mitaji yote husika kwenye utafutaji, na ni  kuwa na hisa kwenye vitalu vingi humwezesha mhusika apunguze riski na kuongezea uvutio kwa watoaji mikopo kuzikubali hisa hizo kama rehani kwenye kuwapatia mikopo. Cha muhimu zaidi ni kwamba thamani ya kuwa na hatimiliki kadhaa za vitalu husika kwenye utafutaji wa mafuta na gesi ni kubwa mno ikilinganishwa na ukubwa wa mitaji husika kwenye utafutaji ndani ya vitalu hivyo na kuwezesha wenye hati hizo kuwagawia sehemu kidogo tu ya hisa hizo kwa wengine watakaowekeza mtaji wote wa kuendeleza utafutaji husika na faida kwa waliowauzia sehemu ya hisa zao husika.

Serikali ilitakiwa itenge hisa za kutosha kwenye vitalu vyote kwa umoja wa Watanzania (private plus private sectors) na zilizobakiwa ziuzwe kwa makampuni ya kigeni yatakayoshiriki ndani ya ubia na huo umoja wa Watanzania kwani umoja huo wa Watanzania kuwa na hisa kwenye vitalu vyote husika kutakuwa kumewaondolea riski kwa kiasi kikubwa.

Kuwa na hisa kwenye vitalu vingi iwezekanavyo ndiko kunakowezesha karibu makampuni yote yanayoshiriki kwenye utafutaji wa mafuta na gesi ulimwenguni kuendelea kupata faida japo kwamba ni chini ya 1% ya vitalu vyote husika kwenye utafutaji huo hugundulika kuwa na rasilimali zinazochimbika kwa faida huku vingine vyote zaidi ya 99% vikiwa havina rasilimali inayochimbika kwa faida kwa sabababu gharama ya utafutaji kwenye vitalu vyote ni ndogo sana inapolinganishwa na thamani ya raslimali iliyomo kwenye vitalu vichache vitakavyogundulika kuwa na rasilimali zinazochimbika kwa faida.

Kuwa na hisa za kampuni ya uchimbaji humwezesha mhusika aweze kuzitumia mara kadhaa kujichukulia mikopo kwa ajili ya kuwekeza kwenye kwenye miradi minngine yenye faida kubwa na ya haraka pasipo kuzipoteza kwenye kampuni. Sio rahisi kutumia hisa za faida itakayopatikana kutokana na uchimbaji kwa sababu hiyo haina uhakika na huwa ikija kidogo kidogo.

Chambi Chachage:

Swali langu ni: Je, hiyo si ndiyo "speculation", i.e., mtu kuhodhi/kulimbikiza ("hisa" za) vitalu ili aviweke "rehani"?

Dr. Antipas Massawe:

Ndiyo ni speculation/gambling inayowezesha wachezaji waweze kujipatia faida kubwa hata kuzidi thamani ya madini yaliyomo au kutokana na speculation inayoendelea kwenye hatimiliki za vitalu ambavyo havina madini kabisa kwa kuhusisha uwekezaji wa wageni. Sehemu kubwa ya wawekezaji kwenye utafutaji na uchimbaji wa madini ni gamblers wanaospeculate hatimiliki za vitalu vya utafutaji ambavyo ni chini ya 1% huja kugundulika kuwa na migodi inayochimbika kwa faida. Serikali ilitakiwa iwawezeshe Watanzania waweze kuspeculate hatimiliki za vitalu vya utafutaji wa madini kwa kiwango kikubwa kwani kufanya hivyo ni kuwezesha taifa lijipatie faida kubwa kutokana na speculation inayoendelea kwenye zaidi ya 99% ya vitalu husika kwenye utafutaji unaohusisha uwekezaji wa wageni ambavyo havina migodi inayochimbika kwa faida.

Peter Bofin:

I think it is important that there is a common understanding of terms. I’m sure the issue of profit oil/gas sharing is understood – a percentage of production after cost recovery and varying with production levels is assigned to the state, via the state oil company usually. This is usually the bulk of state revenue under a production sharing contract. 

Then you have the issue of “ownership”.  Based on the model PSAs, there is an option for TPDC take up a “participating interest” of up to 20% (I think). When agreed between companies it is often referred to as a “farm-in”. This should not be confused with ownership of a company through stock / shares in the company that is granted the licence. It allows for participation in exploration and development through bearing a proportion of the costs, and if successful, a proportionate share in the contractor’s profit oil / gas. Think of it as a joint venture. 

The participating interest can be a free-carry – meaning the state oil company doesn’t have to cover a proportionate share of the costs – or it may not, meaning that a proportionate share of exploration and development costs will have to be borne by the state oil company. This, obviously, has an impact on future revenues, as usually this is taken from the state oil company’s share of profit oil / gas, if any. But be clear, participating interest in a licence is not the same as owning stock or shares. And it can only be used to leverage other financing in some way if there is actual production taking place. 

On the issue of ownership of companies, the ongoing Swala Oil and Gas Tanzania story should be a cautionary tale. The rise and fall of the share price since its IPO in the summer to date has been dramatic. It’s opening price was TZS500, it rose to c. TZS2,400 and now sits, more realistically maybe, at TZS745. At its high point, the share price never reflected that of its parent company. Swala’s price on the Australian exchange has been in steady decline for the past year at least and now trades at AUD0.10. Though one cannot compare directly, only its highest ever price was close to the DSE IPO price. The IPO was promoted heavily across all media in a market where people’s understanding of what drives share prices is limited. There was no questioning of the company’s fundamentals in the media. Nor were any potential conflicts of interest adequately flagged up –  the Chairman of Swala Oil and Gas Tanzania is the Chairman of one of the most prominent stockbrokers in Tanzania. 

There is more to say about Swala. How did such a company that today is so obviously under-capitalised, get a licence in the first place? But that is a discussion for another day.

What does this tell us? It tells us that some people probably took a big loss on the Swala share price rollercoaster, others probably made a killing. More broadly, it tells us of the volatility of the oil company stock, and the high risk nature of such stock. 

Nothing new there in some ways, but looking at Swala, I think it would be irresponsible to suggest share ownership in a previously state owned oil company as a means of ensuring benefits reach Tanzanians. All it will do is encourage people to invest in a very risky sector where market institutions and oversight are not well developed and there is considerable asymmetry of information between potential investors and those seeking investment. It is setting some people up for a fall. 

Anyway, ‘ownership’ is complicated and we need to be sure we are in agreement about terms.

Paul Ngana:

My #2 cents on the issue "Shares vs profit/oil split (PSA)".

If you have shares in the joint venture, you stand to make more money compared to only having a PSA. A strategy have to be in place kuchagua wapi kuwa na hisa na watu kubaki na PSA tu. Sasa hapa inategemea geological data waliyokuwa nayo watu wa pale TPDC, na strategy yao ya ugawaji wa vitalu. Ndio maana sio vizuri kutogawa hivi vitalu haraka haraka. Ni bora kugawa vichache strategically, halafu unasubiri success rate. Then using the available geological data, unaendelea kuuza hivyo vingine. Now, with the available geological data, you can deduce which ones are high prospects. Then unachukua hisa kwenye hizo high prospects. In this way your taking a calculated risk. So, kwenye hizo high prospects you even can decided to take > 20% stake in the joint venture. Kwa hiyo kuwa na hisa kwenye baadhi ya vitalu ni jambo zuri. Dr Massawe hapo [juu] asema unaweza kuchukua mikopo na hivi vitalu, ni kweli. Ila jua kwamba if that well is dry, mkopo unaulipa "Tullow Oil books $415 mln exploration write-off"

Kuhusu ishu ya umilikaji wa hizo 20%. Nitatoa mfano halisi. Hapo Uholanzi, kampuni ya kuchimba mafuta NAM iko Shell(30%), Exxon(30%) Exxon, and 40% (EBN). Sasa hao EBN ni mwakilishi wa serikali kwenye miradi yote ya gesi. Ni ukisoma kwenye hiyo link utaona hii:

"The profits generated by these activities are paid in full to the Dutch State, represented by the Ministry of Economic Affairs, our sole shareholder"

So, in my opinion TPDC inatosha, however, lazima iwezeshwe kwa kuwa na kitengo ambacho kitakuwa kinahusika na shughuli za biashara. Meaning hiyo PetroTan iwe kitengo chini ya TPDC. Manake ukiangalia wenzetu wote Petronas, PVDSA, Saudi Aramco… etc wanakuwa na kampuni moja tu. 

For me what’s more important is, what is the legacy ya hii gesi. What do we want to achieve? We need a vision. Watu wengi wanaangalia sana kuhusu huo mgawano wa mapato profit oil/PSA/royalties, taxes ila wanasahau pia kuhusu matumizi ya hizi hela na jinsi gani zitatutoa kwenye umaskini. MD wa TPDC Mataragio yeye tayari anadhani mafuta/gesi hayatatutoa kwenye umasikini "Why gas isn’t likely to boost TZ economy". I beg to differ, but i reserve my judgement, time will tell.

Anway, kama Zitto alivyosema, thread ya "Manufaa ya gesi kwa Mtanzania" ianzishwe ili discussion ziwe more productive, and hopefully tunaweza kumpa mawazo MD wetu:-)
MJADALA UNAENDELEA KWENYE:

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